Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025 - Briar (SAGE)

Briar

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Taige Houk

5th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jayne Van Ness (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Doll (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alex Fraser (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sean Duncan (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Charlton Smith (Olympia) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R6	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Elly Bird

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Clair ()

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Neet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Luke Putz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.76
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.07
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Sean Elliott

17th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Robbins ()

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Arlo Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs shawn rothwell (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tristan Schmidt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Chris Morrison

33rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Engen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Chang (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs William Weinberg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dakota Cochran (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R6	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Luke Harris

42nd • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Aurora) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs John Zapata (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Blake Freeman (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R3	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.94
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Nickolas wells

51st • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Abby Cwiertak (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Rawlings (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ben Platt (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sean Duncan (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Joshua Frailey

54th • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Winther (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Yaksich (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mark Brandon (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Will Stubbs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Blake Freeman (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Winther (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sean Duncan (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Francis Shigley (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.77

Elspeth Fisher

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Olle Donath ()

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Markus Withakay (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Neitzel (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Taylor Jennings

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs sean Burke (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyson Au (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Carson Allen (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Drew Bosco (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kaden Schoonover (Fai) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Elly Bird (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arlo Johnson

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Francis Shigley (Azalea) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sean Elliott (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Fai) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Sean Judd

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Hembroff (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Wood (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aiden Shigley (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.81	2.37

Jayne Van Ness

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Manship (Oldhim) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Taige Houk (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Sean Davitt

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs carolina alvarado (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Thor Hoffman

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

james Hoenstine

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Chane) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.