Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025 - Lyath Goldmane (SAGE)

Lyath Goldmane

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joshua Neitzel

20th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Chan ()

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Will Stubbs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Elspeth Fisher (Briar) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Fio Aleksandra (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Putz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 18:82

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Eli Cook (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Logan King (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.67
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Markus Withakay

52nd • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Elspeth Fisher (Briar) - Expected: 29:71

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Winther (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tristan Schmidt (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 18:82

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Hembroff (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Rawlings (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.96
R8	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Brotton

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sean Judd (Briar) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brittany Isaacson (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Khuu (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs William Weinberg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.71
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

David Sarraf

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.