Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025 - Terra (SAGE)

Terra

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aurora Kynkor

15th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Travis Spicer (Oldhim) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Pier (Terra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 33:67

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Raul Quiroga (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs William Weinberg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 53:47

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

David Pier

60th • 2-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Briar) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Terra) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Harris (Briar) - Expected: 58:42

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Duncan (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Will Stubbs (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 53:47

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Francis Shigley (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Joseph Gannon (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Catherine Levine

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Francis Shigley (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Martin (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Iyslander) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Timothy Pearse

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Scott Khuu (Oldhim) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Morrison (Briar) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Briar) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.