Kayo at Battle Hardened: Seattle 2025

Kayo

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Drew Bosco

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Chane) - Expected: 55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Jennings (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

William Marion

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs William Weinberg (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Rawlings (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 56:44

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nate Davis

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Saiewitz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Nik Burns

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Ngo ()

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Carson Allen (Fai) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs sean Burke (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Fai	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.