Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazuna Otsuka (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 宮本 憲侑 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Taiki Bamba (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
11th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs 野原 由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 80:20
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Reo Hamada (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Adam Hove (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22
Round 5: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Keith Tan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
12th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 中嶋 海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
Round 5: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Taiki Bamba (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
14th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs None ()
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazushi Nimiya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Round 4: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Loss | |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
23rd • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yukitaka Inohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs RYO OZAKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Clinton Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs kazuki ueda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 野原 由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
36th • 2-4-1
57%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 一平 近藤 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Round 2: Loss vs Taiki Bamba (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gen Shinohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs shutatsu sato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Akihiro Takano (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs RYO OZAKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Draw |
| R5 | Pleiades, Superstar | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kohei Okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 中嶋 海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 野原 由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kazushi Nimiya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
Round 4: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.