Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 8-2-0
70%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
4.8
Surp
3.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 宮本 憲侑 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Pudding Tam (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 祥弘 橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 北斗 神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Clinton Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
70% (7/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
26th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Akihiro Takano (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ken Kuwahara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gen Shinohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yukitaka Inohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 宮本 憲侑 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Pleiades, Superstar | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 岡西 達也 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 北斗 神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
Round 4: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs shutatsu sato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs 野原 由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs kazuki ueda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
Round 4: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
Round 2: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs RYO OZAKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Olstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ardian Okki Nursalim (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Masaaki Ochi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs 藤田 隼輔 (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs syun suzuki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.