Kano, Dracai of Aether at Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025

Kano, Dracai of Aether

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jian Wei Tee

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 岡本一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 70:30

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Connor Leverton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs 祥弘橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.19
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Katsuya Hirai

39th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 藤田隼輔 (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None ()

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Olstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

ChingHeng Lin

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 宮本憲侑 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuki Yokoyama (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ikumi Miyao (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

藤田隼輔

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryusei Tani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.