Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025 - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Esmond Heng

25th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ChingHeng Lin (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs RYO OZAKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs syun suzuki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kazuaki Fujimoto (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

CYK Lionel

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Iada Caio (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Masaaki Ochi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.41
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Gaia Enomoto

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuna Otsuka (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joniel Ibasco (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Shou Miyahara

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gen Shinohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keith Tan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.