Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025

Dash I/O

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Esmond Heng

25th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ChingHeng Lin (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs RYO OZAKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs syun suzuki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kazuaki Fujimoto (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.49
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

CYK Lionel

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Iada Caio (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Masaaki Ochi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.41
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Gaia Enomoto

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuna Otsuka (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joniel Ibasco (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.85
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Shou Miyahara

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gen Shinohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keith Tan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.