Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025 - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Clinton Ng

3rd • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuki Yokoyama (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Reo Hamada (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor Leverton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kazuaki Fukui (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pudding Tam (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.17
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.10
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.50
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.66
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Yuusuke Kiguchi

33rd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jian Wei Tee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Olstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kohei Okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Iada Caio (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yukitaka Inohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.44
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Megumi Hori

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs タカヤスギモト (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs kazuki ueda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.