Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kunihiko Date

15th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Akira Inuma (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

tomoya kitagawa

19th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taiki Bamba (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs K. Tanaka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Connor Leverton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs syun suzuki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.44
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Hayate Nakamura

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Olstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.69

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.