Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025 - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kunihiko Date

15th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Akira Inuma (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

tomoya kitagawa

19th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taiki Bamba (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs K. Tanaka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Connor Leverton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs syun suzuki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.23
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.35
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.27
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Hayate Nakamura

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Olstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.