Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025 - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ran Sasaki

38th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taiga Maeda (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs タカヤスギモト (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs shutatsu sato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Keith Tan

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tim Lüttmer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Olstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Kyoshiro Takegahara

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Hove (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taiga Maeda (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs kazuki ueda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.88
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

kouji hamada

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joniel Ibasco (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jyunnosuke Yano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.