Puffin, Hightail at Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025
Puffin, Hightail
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
30th • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs shutatsu sato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Olstad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tim Lüttmer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.