Battle Hardened: Osaka 2025 - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tatsuaki Tsuchida

17th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 一平近藤 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Iada Caio (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs syun suzuki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs kazuki ueda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jian Wei Tee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.02
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Kazushi Nimiya

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs K. Tanaka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

一平近藤

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yukitaka Inohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.