Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Perth 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Liam Bennett

1st • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brendan Peters (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Coiffc (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Kassiotis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ewan Bailey-Thielw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Ryan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Valdis Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sean Fry (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.11
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.37
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.62
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Hayden Giles

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Gale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brodey Plecas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Max Chapman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.21
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Zack Jarmyn

5th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Reid (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Filipe Rato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Valdis Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Yousef Mnahy

18th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Giles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lomas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brad Adam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Simon Nixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hayden Buys (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gothstana Mayers (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.97
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Elliott Low Choy

33rd • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Barton Cann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gothstana Mayers (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Holtzman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ewan Bailey-Thielw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Paul Holtzman

42nd • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kale Brenzi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodey Plecas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elliott Low Choy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Simon Nixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.