Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Perth 2025 (Beyond

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ewan Bailey-Thielw

16th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Kassiotis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Lucev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Nixon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elliott Low Choy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brodey Plecas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.05
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.00
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.61

Jordan Reid

28th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josh Kijak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Filipe Rato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Wise (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jarrod Bowler (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Simon Nixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.15
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Win	✗	0.77	2.14

Ruairidh Wasson

29th • 3-3-0

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Fry (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brad Adam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gavin Chappell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Bannon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Elliott Low Choy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Win	✗	0.87	1.94
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.