Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Perth 2025 (Beyond Odyssey)

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nathan Lucev

17th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brad Adam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ewan Bailey-Thielw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brendon Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Ryan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Gale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robert Wise (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.78
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.62
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.75	2.00

Stefan Skokleski

21st • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Dominy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Ryan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Manea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julian Cavenoni (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jason Coiffc (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.57
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jeremy Jarvis

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brendon Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brendan Peters (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sandro Pitt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jack Manea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.54
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.