Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Perth 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aidan Bannon

24th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valdis Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brendan Peters (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Crause (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 83:17

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 87:13

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.17
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Gavin Chappell

31st • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Manea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Nixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Liam Hussey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.20
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.02
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Kale Brenzi

40th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Hodges (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Holtzman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Callum Jarvis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josh Kijak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Peters (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.20
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Sandro Pitt

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Chapman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodey Plecas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Jarvis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Peters (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.