Battle Hardened: Perth 2025 (Beyond Odyssey) - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aidan Bannon

24th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valdis Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brendan Peters (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Crause (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.28
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.43
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Gavin Chappell

31st • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Manea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Nixon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Liam Hussey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.30
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Kale Brenzi

40th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Hodges (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Holtzman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Callum Jarvis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josh Kijak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Peters (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.56

Sandro Pitt

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Chapman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodey Plecas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Jarvis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Peters (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.