Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Perth 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emma Hollingsworth

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Kijak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ali Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 88:12

90:10

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Buys (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 88:12

90:10

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robert Wise (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 88:12

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.03
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.07
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.10
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.12
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Sean Fry

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 69:31

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julian Cavenoni (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 90:10

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Nixon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sammy Mnahy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.07
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Megumi Hori

43rd • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Ryan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sammy Mnahy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Barton Cann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Gale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gavin Chappell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kale Brenzi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.