Battle Hardened: Perth 2025 (Beyond Odyssey) - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emma Hollingsworth

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Kijak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ali Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hayden Buys (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robert Wise (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.06
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.11
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.14
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.18
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Sean Fry

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julian Cavenoni (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Nixon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sammy Mnahy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.95
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Megumi Hori

43rd • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Ryan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sammy Mnahy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Barton Cann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Gale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gavin Chappell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kale Brenzi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.