Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Battle Hardened: Perth

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Euan Ansell

2nd • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brodey Plecas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliott Low Choy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Buys (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stefan Skokleski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hayden Giles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.35
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.69
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.21
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.84
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Filipe Rato

35th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Lomas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Reid (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Callum Jarvis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodey Plecas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs James Hodges (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.00
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Adam Gale

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ali Ryan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Giles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Mnahy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.40
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Jordan Kassiotis

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ewan Bailey-Thielw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Barton Cann (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jarrod Bowler (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Ethan Dominy

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Skokleski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Crause (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.