Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Perth 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jarrod Bowler

26th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Coiffc (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Tomich (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Josh Kijak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Kassiotis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Reid (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brad Adam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.64
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Simon Nixon

38th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeffrey Anderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gavin Chappell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Hussey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Holtzman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Reid (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Barton Cann

41st • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elliott Low Choy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Kassiotis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Kijak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Lomas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Jason Coiffc

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jarrod Bowler (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Valdis Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Stefan Skokleski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.