Fang, Dracai of Blades at Battle Hardened: Perth 2025

Fang, Dracai of Blades

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Toby Wilson

5th • 5-2-0

14%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Holtzman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Giles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Max Chapman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sean Fry (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.93
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.90
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Daniel Nixon

12th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Crause (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brendon Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ewan Bailey-Thielw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Fry (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Mnahy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brendan Peters (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Brad Adam

15th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Hodges (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Max Chapman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jarrod Bowler (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Jordan Tomich

36th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jarrod Bowler (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeffrey Anderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 31:69

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Lomas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.