Battle Hardened: Perth 2025 (Beyond Odyssey) - Fang, Dracai of Blades (CC)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Toby Wilson

5th • 5-2-0

14%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Holtzman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Giles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Max Chapman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sean Fry (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.23
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.37
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.69
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.08
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.93
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Daniel Nixon

12th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Crause (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brendon Allan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ewan Bailey-Thielw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Fry (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Mnahy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brendan Peters (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Brad Adam

15th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Hodges (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 79:21

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Max Chapman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jarrod Bowler (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.80
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.22
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Jordan Tomich

36th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jemima Evans (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jarrod Bowler (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeffrey Anderson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Lomas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.93
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.