Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at Battle Hardened: Perth 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Damian Moss

3rd • 7-1-0

62%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robert Wise (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Manea (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Coiffc (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sammy Mnahy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zack Jarmyn (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.94
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.95
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Brendan Peters

22nd • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Jarvis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Bannon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Bradford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin MacKenzie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Nixon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Brodey Plecas

23rd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sandro Pitt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Holtzman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Giles (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Filipe Rato (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ewan Bailey-Thielw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.88
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Benjamin Ryan

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Megumi Hori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefan Skokleski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Chapman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nathan Lucev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.26
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.52
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Brendon Allan

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Jarvis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Nixon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.