National Championship 2025 - Taiwan - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Oh Oh

1st • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

7.8

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Monkey Li (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yu Huan Lin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Yu Huan Lin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.18
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.36
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.64
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.78
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.17

Lin Yu-Hsi

3rd • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 健峰簡 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chu Fung Huei (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sheng Pu Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs KeDuo Yang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yang-Chia Chang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Yang-Chia Chang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.05
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.11
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Draw	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.30
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Yang-Chia Chang

5th • 6-1-0

43%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

6.3

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Po-Chuan Lin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 陳子豫 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wen Jin Hsu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs ChingHeng Lin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.26
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.15
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.53
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.58
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.04
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.71
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pei-Tung Liao

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shao Lun Lu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 昀劉 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.76
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.28
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

CYK Lionel

19th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 左承勳 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chen Yi-Lin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs chen shr jiang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sheng Pu Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joey Jiik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.47
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.54
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Redc Chen

23rd • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs wu chongjaun (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yash Chiu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 左承勳 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs HO CHI-YUN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs yu hong wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs yi chuan lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R10	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.46
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.30	1.04

Xincheng Hou

25th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cheng-Chung Tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yu Huan Lin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andy Ko (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs yi chuan lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Joey Jiik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Chen Yi-Lin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.22
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.87
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.82

Shao Lun Lu

39th • 0-6-0

83%

Meta

-3.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 培廷吳 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs HaoChun Yang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs HSUEH Eric (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sun Yu Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Chu Fung Huei (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Chen Ming

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adonis Liang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs 王上熏 (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

85:15

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs HO CHI-YUN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.12
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R11	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-

Stop-Ting Hsu

dropped • 2-0-1

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Albert Ho (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chiang ShenLun (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Draw	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.20
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.23

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.