Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025 - Taiwan
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 7-2-0
56%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
4.7
Surp
8.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Monkey Li (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
80:20
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Yu Huan Lin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Yu Huan Lin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 15: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
8.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
3rd • 4-3-1
88%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.0
Diff
95:5
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 健峰 簡 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 96:4
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chu Fung Huei (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
Round 3: Loss vs Sheng Pu Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs KeDuo Yang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Yang-Chia Chang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Yang-Chia Chang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 95% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Draw |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
5th • 6-1-0
43%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
6.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Po-Chuan Lin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 陳 子豫 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wen Jin Hsu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs ChingHeng Lin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 11: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
6.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
5th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
4.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shao Lun Lu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 昀 劉 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
19th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 左 承勳 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chen Yi-Lin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
85:15
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs chen shr jiang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17
80:20
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Sheng Pu Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Joey Jiik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
23rd • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs wu chongjaun (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yash Chiu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 左 承勳 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs HO CHI-YUN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs yu hong wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs yi chuan lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
25th • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Cheng-Chung Tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yu Huan Lin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andy Ko (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs yi chuan lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Joey Jiik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Chen Yi-Lin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
39th • 0-6-0
83%
Meta
-3.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs 培廷 吳 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs HaoChun Yang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs HSUEH Eric (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 11: Loss vs Sun Yu Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Round 12: Loss vs Chu Fung Huei (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-3.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Loss |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adonis Liang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Round 10: Loss vs 王 上熏 (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Round 11: Loss vs HO CHI-YUN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Loss |
| R11 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 2-0-1
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
95:5
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Albert Ho (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 96:4
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chiang ShenLun (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 95% | Draw |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.