National Championship 2025 - Taiwan - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

左承勳

9th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chuang Yike (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Redc Chen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sheng Pu Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs yu hong wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.51
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.35

Lee Ming-Han

18th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wang Chung Chi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs CHUN-CHIEH CHENG (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs ChingHeng Lin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.34	1.11
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Luo Sheng-Xun

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs HO CHI-YUN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Chung-hsieh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

MIN FENG CHIU

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 昀劉 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Albert Ho (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Huang Hsiang En (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.28
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.