National Championship 2025 - Taiwan - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

yu hong wang

20th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs HaoChun Yang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 陸宗彥 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs chen shr jiang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Andy Ko (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Redc Chen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs 左承勳 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.37
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.89
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Po-Chuan Lin

34th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yang-Chia Chang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cheng-Chung Tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andy Ko (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.95
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.51
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

子謙張

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chiang ShenLun (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 陳子豫 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

tim Lin

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs kou rui yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs 陳正宇 (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wang Chung Chi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.