Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

yu hong wang

20th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs HaoChun Yang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 陸宗彥 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs chen shr jiang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Andy Ko (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Redc Chen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs 左承勳 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.20
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.84
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Po-Chuan Lin

34th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yang-Chia Chang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cheng-Chung Tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andy Ko (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.42
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

子謙張

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chiang ShenLun (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 陳子豫 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

tim Lin

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs kou rui yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs 陳正宇 (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 92:8

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wang Chung Chi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	90%	Draw	✓	0.92	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.