Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chen Yi-Lin

28th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yu MinChe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sun Yu Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs ChingHeng Lin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.32
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.11
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.90
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Manson Hsiau

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sheng Pu Wang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

陸宗彥

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jing Hao Fang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs yu hong wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ma Kang shuo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.