Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

CHIU CHUNG-YI

dropped • 0-5-0

40%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manson Hsiau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yash Chiu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Po-Chuan Lin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Teoh Juwern (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

HaoChun Yang

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs yu hong wang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chin Shiki (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shao Lun Lu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Monkey Li

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oh Oh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joey Jiik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.