Fang, Dracai of Blades at National Championship 2025

Fang, Dracai of Blades

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

CHAI NELSON

35th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs cheng chia yao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chan Cian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Wen Jin Hsu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs CHUN-CHIEH CHENG (Dash I/O) - Expected: 25:75

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Chuang Yike (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R3	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R12	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Chin Shiki

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Chung-hsieh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs HaoChun Yang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adonis Liang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.51

MIN HSU

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Night S (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 王上熏 (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs cheng chia yao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.