Fang, Dracai of Blades at National Championship 2025

Fang, Dracai of Blades

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

CHAI NELSON

35th • 3-3-0

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs cheng chia yao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chan Cian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Wen Jin Hsu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs CHUN-CHIEH CHENG (Dash I/O) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Chuang Yike (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.47
R3	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R12	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Win	✗	0.67	3.17

Chin Shiki

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Chung-hsieh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs HaoChun Yang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adonis Liang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.42
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.51

MIN HSU

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Night S (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 王上熏 (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs cheng chia yao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.