Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yash Chiu

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Redc Chen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs CHUN-CHIEH CHENG (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs yi chuan lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Adonis Liang

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chen Ming (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 藍白 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chin Shiki (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Kevin Chung-hsieh

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chin Shiki (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs yi chuan lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luo Sheng-Xun (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Night S

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs MIN HSU (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs HSUEH Eric (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs wu chongjaun (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

莊子毅

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 陳子豫 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs cheng chia yao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 陳正宇 (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.