National Championship 2025 - Taiwan - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

陳子豫

12th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

7.5

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 莊子毅 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yang-Chia Chang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 子謙張 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 21:79

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs 王上熏 (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

15:85

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

7.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Win	✗	0.83	5.17

yi chuan lai

31st • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs HO CHI-YUN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Chung-hsieh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs kou rui yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Yash Chiu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Redc Chen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.38	1.24
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

培廷吳

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs chen shr jiang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shao Lun Lu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sun Yu Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.15
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.