Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship 2025 - Taiwan
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
11th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs CHEN HAN WEI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wen Jin Hsu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Yang-Chia Chang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Chen Yi-Lin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.