Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Taiwan
Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
17th • 4-2-0
17%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
3.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Huang Hsiang En (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 2: Win vs 子謙 張 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chen Ming (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Wen Jin Hsu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs CHUN-CHIEH CHENG (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.