World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Poland (Bydgoszcz) - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Maciej Chmielewski

5th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafał Szymaszek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michał Sucharski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Miłosz Wierzchoń (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Łukasz Kolibaj (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Igor Wesołowski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paweł Leszuk (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Maciej Janik (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.81
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.16
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

kuba tambor

5th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mariusz Gapski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michał Biernacki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pawel Kutesko (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bartłomiej Wieszok (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Aleksander Zabłocki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Aleksander Zabłocki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.19
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.81
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.76
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Sebastian Maciejkowski

31st • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mikołaj Łysko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Szary (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kamil Grodecki (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paweł Kręcki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.59
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.48
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.17

Kamil "Kaka" Żerek

45th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Łukasz Kolibaj (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Pacholski (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paweł Leszuk (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tomasz Zalejski (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dominik Piatkowski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrzej Meczynski (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.67
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43

Grzegorz Pijas

50th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kamil Zabłocki senior (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Szura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rafał Szymaszek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mikołaj Łysko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michał Krzyżyk (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mariusz Gapski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Łukasz "Bob" Grądzik

58th • 1-6-0

57%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michał Billewicz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub Ratajczyk (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kamil Grodecki (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Skruch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tomasz Zalejski (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mariusz Gapski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Robert Szura (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.83
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Tomasz Stanislawski

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arkadiusz Modzelewski (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcin Pelzner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Szymon Piątek (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Maciej Pacholski

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Mikołaj Walc (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Stelmach (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mateusz Grzonka (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.