Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mara Faris

dropped • 5-5-0

30%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Logan Reinert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Stenstrom (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Witt Lucas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

30% (3/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.09
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.75
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.30
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Andrew Stamenkovich

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Logan Reinert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Carter (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Sweany (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark lewis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.55
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.07
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Christopher Iaali

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Wadley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.19
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Bryce Morgan

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Benefield (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Morrison (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.50
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.93
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Harrison Pruitt

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.75
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Natalie Birch

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Bernal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Harmony Meade (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Geoff Walter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.26
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Colton Walker

dropped • 2-5-0

14%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Sweany (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Sorensen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eric LaGaccia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matt Langston (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Jerry Theuns

dropped • 1-6-0

43%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tanner Propst (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Salgado (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Kelly (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Fields (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zackary Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bradley Cox (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.99
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Ethan Beam

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Hayslip (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Watts (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Pagnani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.53
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Tyler McMurray

dropped • 1-3-1

40%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Makowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Codi Barnett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs James Wray (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.18
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Draw	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Chase Effler

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Codi Barnett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.15
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Casey Russell

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Bullie (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Evan Ford (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.26
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-

Michael Stanko

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Long (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darren Rennie (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.