Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Memphis 2025 [A]

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sherman Darrenkamp

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Scott Sharpe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xander Pumphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kent Summerour (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.34
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.29

Trent Lynch

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Reak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Chappell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Edward Knight (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.79
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Xander Pumphrey

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.47

Tyler Sorensen

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colton Walker (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Jim Yost

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Andrews (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.