Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic Constructed - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sherman Darrenkamp

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Scott Sharpe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xander Pumphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kent Summerour (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.29
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.54

Trent Lynch

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Reak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Chappell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Edward Knight (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Xander Pumphrey

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Kelly (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

Tyler Sorensen

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colton Walker (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jim Yost

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Andrews (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.