Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic

Arakni, Marionette

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thomas Battaglia

9th • 9-3-0

67%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.7

Surp

4.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sam Rosenberg (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bill Early (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs SEAN STELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tanner Propst (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noah Rolf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Justin Evans (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.10
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.96
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.04
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jacob Kissel

18th • 9-3-0

58%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

5.6

Surp

4.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Davison (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Evans (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jordan Long (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs gabriel ebady (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.25
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.14
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.78
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi

27th • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Wray (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Benefield (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Anthony Salgado (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nick Gabler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Max McLean (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.30
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.49
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.94
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.81
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Brian Lorenz

40th • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.0

Surp

4.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trey Herring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Rivera (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Acklin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Noah Clark (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Witt Lucas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.11
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.37
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.87
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.78
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.49

Dagan White

45th • 7-4-1

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

6.3

Surp

4.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony DeMeo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chase Effler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs SEAN STELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Justin Kinison (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.87
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.14
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Derek Chiu

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Reed (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Benefield (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ovas Siddiqui

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Pagnani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Sweany (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew W (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Pat Eshghy

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Nennich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Carter (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Riddell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Geoff Walter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.78
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Lucas Barding

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shane Martin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John-David Cottrell (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Andrew Henderson

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler To (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jerry Theuns (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bradley Cox (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Irvin Tostado (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.21
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Wyatt Schmitt

dropped • 2-3-1

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Ash Jones (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Wray (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Keegan McNear (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emery Powell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Carter Barton (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Draw	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.48
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Travis Yeo

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Geoff Walter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.51
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Michael Clair

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Walker Roberts (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Nghia Tran

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Langston (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andre Francis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Brandon Hartman

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Geoff Walter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Trey Herring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Hess (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.