Aurora, Shooting Star
19 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 11-3-0
100%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
6.6
Surp
4.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mark Morrison (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evan Ford (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jared Wyce (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Kissel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ashton Dorsey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Justin Evans (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (14/14 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (7.9 expected, 11 actual)
Surprise
6.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
28th • 8-4-0
100%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
5.5
Surp
3.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andre Francis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dominic Delmont (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andrew Epermanis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Austin Henson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Timothy Long (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Tanner Propst (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (12/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
41st • 7-5-0
92%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
6.5
Surp
2.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs William Pistel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Stamenkovich (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mark lewis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Nennich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jordan Long (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Chandler To (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
92% (11/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alain Arduain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Austin Henson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Orlando Valdes Santos (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Haik Voskerchian (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew W (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Hess (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 6: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Witt Lucas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John-David Cottrell (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Austin Henson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Haik Voskerchian (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hayden Reed (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Canales (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brandon Fields (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Bill Early (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zackary Young (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eli Teed (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicolas Seegraves (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
100%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Booher (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eric LaGaccia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 6: Loss vs Bill Early (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sean Adam (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mark Morrison (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Levi Zinkhon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Austin Revera (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Watkins (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Moore (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bill Early (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Edward Knight (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dylan Harter (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Reitenbach (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Salgado (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs William Pistel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jake Landaiche (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tyson Au (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Scott Sharpe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Round 3: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.