Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic Constructed - Fai, Rising Rebellion (CC)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Benefield

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dayton Blair (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Andrews (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Joseph Watts

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Beam (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew White (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Emery Powell

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eli Teed (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Eli Teed

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emery Powell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Stenstrom (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.