Azalea, Ace in the Hole
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zoey Gerstner (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
Round 7: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
0%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Seegraves (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nate Kimbrel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chandler To (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
0% (0/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jerry Theuns (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Adam Kershaw (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Irvin Tostado (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs David Wadley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Anastasia Benner (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Scott Sharpe (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joseph Watts (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alex DeShazo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Goomroyan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Trey Herring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Stecker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Harter (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Xander Pumphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Seegraves (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Feng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Trent Lynch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Amber Pennington (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.