Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic Constructed - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Sorensen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ashton Dorsey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jameon Delp (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Stamenkovich (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alain Arduain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.86
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.48
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Gui Cohen

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andre Francis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyson Au (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ethan Beam (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.56
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Brennan Tolnay

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Durham (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.50
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Devin Simms

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brooks Mitchell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.12
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dylan Harter

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.