Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Memphis 2025

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Justin Fryar

dropped • 5-5-0

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

5.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colin Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Trent Lynch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Austin Revera (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Austin Henson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.75
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.23
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Ashton Dorsey

dropped • 4-2-1

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Mark lewis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.09
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	20%	Draw	✗	0.19	-

Alexis Schlagenhauf

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Henry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Hayslip (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Steven Sweany

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colton Walker (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Hilleary (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Stamenkovich (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Campbell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Andrew Blackwell

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Conrad Niebuhr (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Todd (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Ash Jones

dropped • 0-3-1

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Wyatt Schmitt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Pagnani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs brynn nieboer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keegan McNear (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.