Calling: Memphis 2025 [A] Classic Constructed - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Fouk

13th • 9-3-0

75%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

5.3

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andre Francis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Noah Biros (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aaron Cutbirth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.08
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.38
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.00
R10	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.76
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

Eric LaGaccia

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Reak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Henry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex DeShazo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Colton Walker (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Kelly (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.30
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.33
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Jason Watkins

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Nennich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Klasman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Tucker (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Conrad Niebuhr (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.41
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.