Bravo, Showstopper
26 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
18th • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
6.3
Surp
3.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeremias Lim (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Armin Eminovic (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Loh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Remi Grasset (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sean Yang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
Round 6: Win vs Jasin Long (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs Vincent Lam (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Troy Wilson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Kuan Li (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Drew Giessler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
20th • 8-4-0
42%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
5.6
Surp
4.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bryce Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kieran Carnegie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ross Jackson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Bingemann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs John Wardan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Luis Henriques (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jerome Casado (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Casey Wilson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Uhyoung Choi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
22nd • 8-4-0
58%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
5.8
Surp
4.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Muhamad Fachrul (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Curtis (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nick McGrath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs German Glukhov (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs bill huynh (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
Round 8: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 30:70
Round 10: Win vs Darryn Ying (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Alex Paz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Damien Hutchins (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
29th • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
6.1
Surp
5.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tristan Sampson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Vandenberg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kiki Labad (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jalen Williams Max (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs bas kanters (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Matthew Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
Round 7: Win vs Karel Doorman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Darryn Ying (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Damien Hutchins (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Daniel Homan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
41st • 7-4-1
67%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
6.2
Surp
3.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Storm Sutherland (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Digl Dixon (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jason Ly (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kael Sabben (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
Round 5: Win vs Kiki Labad (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Taine Markley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Draw vs Patrick Watt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Rusling (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 23:77
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jonathan Asquith (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Hayden Beck (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Draw |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
44th • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
5.7
Surp
3.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jerome Casado (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Harry Kaloyirou (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jaii Nestler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Hill (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Theodore Scott (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adrien De Haro (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alex Paz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Tyshing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
Round 10: Win vs Dom Nappa (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Ryan Royals (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
53rd • 6-6-0
67%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
5.3
Surp
2.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zane Landrigan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathan Vandenberg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ashley Kalz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brodie Snoek (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Perri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Royals (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Alex Crowther (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Rusling (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 23:77
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jonathan Asquith (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R10 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Win vs Keegan Walls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Digl Dixon (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Casey Wilson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Max Chapman (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Tyshing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Poll (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jalen Williams Max (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Win vs Jackie Rousseau (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Portelli (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Steven Liu (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Drew Giessler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jack Haywood (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joel De Francesco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs German Glukhov (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Paz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Isaac Ward (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs German Glukhov (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs James MacDonald (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tim Gunderson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul Johnson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Winter Lachlan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alex Crowther (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-1
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Kennedy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joel Gibbons (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ben Clarke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Robert Piper (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Lachlan Maddaford (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Taylor (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Draw |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Robert Piper (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Basil Foo (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Harry Kaloyirou (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
Round 4: Win vs Kaeleb Rundell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Armin Eminovic (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs jeffrey borroni (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nathan Bonham (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Pickett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs James Ward (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sean Yang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Kiely (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs James Lewis (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Samuel Thompson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adrien De Haro (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Billy Docherty (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robert Hall (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jack Armstrong (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicole Pursey (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-1
86%
Meta
-2.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
0.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Zheng (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Luis Henriques (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs bas kanters (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Taylor (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs James Storey (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Loss vs Evan Bentley (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Draw |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daimon Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Thompson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joel De Francesco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Crowther (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leigh Fletcher (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Darren Taing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Faron Swingler (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kiki Labad (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Toby Firth (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lachlan Saunders (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Remi Grasset (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Snoek (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kaylee Carmody (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jason Ly (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Olivia Haynes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Taylor (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Vinh Luong (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lachlan Saunders (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lynnette Nattrass (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zac Goode (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hayden Beck (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bill Learmonth (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs German Glukhov (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zane Landrigan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs danika hoskins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Keomany (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Poll (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Danial Affendy (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tim Gunderson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Liam Reyne (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robert Piper (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paul Johnson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Valentine Nguyen (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Shane Johnstone (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lawrence Mason (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs corey ingram (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Paz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lachlan Ruggari (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sang Wook Kim (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.