Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Melbourne 2023
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
46th • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
5.7
Surp
3.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Sheedy (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zac Goode (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jerome Casado (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Darryn Ying (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Peter Katsakis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Muhamad Fachrul (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
Round 9: Loss vs Nicholas Loh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Damien Hutchins (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Taine Markley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs kenny forrester (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs James MacDonald (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Owen Palmer (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Drew Giessler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brodie Whyte (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Scott Ward (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Harry Kaloyirou (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Reid (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sable Wang-Wills (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Max Chapman (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
Round 5: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Fahad Rahman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Robert Wise (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Zachary Cauchi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Bates (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Casey Wilson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Katsakis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Donald Tang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tom Malek (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Xavier Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
57%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Tyshing (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Josh Kijak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David de Bruyne (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lachlan Saunders (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adam Pickett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
Round 7: Loss vs Jerry Kaonang (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Kalz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Win vs Leigh Carmody (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jake mccormack (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Curtis (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Xavier Ryan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sang Wook Kim (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sarah Nicholas (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Win vs Brennan Collier (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs phil bell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Asquith (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
Round 6: Loss vs Dev Gordon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
50%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kaeleb Rundell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Harley Birch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ashley Kalz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Greg Illingworth (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Uhyoung Choi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joseph Reid (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ross Jackson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mark Phillips (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Tjahjono (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
Round 3: Win vs xuhong tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Owen Palmer (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lachlan Buchan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hamish Morgan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Kiely (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Kostoglou (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-4-0
0%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Sylven (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Toby Wilson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs James MacDonald (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Bentley (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Crowther (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Toni Challenor (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Loss vs Jerry Kaonang (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.