Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Melbourne 2023

Dorinthea Ironsong

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

logan boyd

43rd • 7-5-0

42%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shane Johnstone (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 78:22

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Barnes (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phu Nguyen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs jiasu chen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ben Clarke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kuan Li (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 42:58

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Hayden Beck (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs kenny forrester (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.03
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.57
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Luis Henriques

dropped • 3-3-1

29%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robert Hall (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs jeffrey borroni (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zane Landrigan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Wardan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Roy Lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Basil Foo (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Isaac Ward

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lynnette Nattrass (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mat Collett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bill Learmonth (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vinh Luong (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Barnes (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Luke Fletcher

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Darren Taing (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Kiely (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Donald Tang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Yang (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Owen Palmer (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sang Wook Kim (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

John Wardan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lance Sielaff (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Toby Wilson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Henriques (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ross Jackson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jaii Nestler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Bonham (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Byrne (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.