Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shaun Leow (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Carl Camit (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jaxon Every (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Paz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Keomany (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gabe Sher (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
10:90
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Uhyoung Choi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
10:90
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Sibley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Charlie Thompson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Bonham (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bryce Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tye Soens (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lawrence Mason (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Valentine Nguyen (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Basil Foo (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43
10:90
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
10:90
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tom Malek (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luke Fletcher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Justin Lim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Kwan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43
Round 5: Win vs Evan Bentley (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brodie Snoek (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Greg Mansfield (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
Round 3: Win vs William Yeoh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs phil bell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Sgammotta (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chad Mitchell (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Olivia Haynes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daimon Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Wardan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.