Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Melbourne 2023
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shaun Leow (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Carl Camit (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jaxon Every (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Paz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Keomany (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gabe Sher (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33
10:90
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Uhyoung Choi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mike Ngawati (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68
10:90
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Sibley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Charlie Thompson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Bonham (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bryce Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tye Soens (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lawrence Mason (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Valentine Nguyen (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Basil Foo (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
10:90
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Baines (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
10:90
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tom Malek (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luke Fletcher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Justin Lim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33
Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Kwan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Evan Bentley (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brodie Snoek (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Greg Mansfield (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
Round 3: Win vs William Yeoh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs phil bell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Sgammotta (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chad Mitchell (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Olivia Haynes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daimon Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Wardan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.