Calling: Melbourne 2023 - Riptide, Lurker of the Deep (CC)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

kenny forrester

51st • 6-6-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

5.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Gubbins (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Perri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Keegan Walls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Ward (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Amelia Hulin-Bobart (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steven Liu (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Roy Lai (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Peter Katsakis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Brendon Allan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matt Nguyen (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (6.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.06
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.43
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Brodie Whyte

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shaan Kanagalingam (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs bas kanters (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jerome Casado (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Anthony Sgammotta

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Theodore Scott (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 17:83

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs corey ingram (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Qi (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shane Van Den Hurk (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.83
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.