Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Melbourne 2023
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs xuhong tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Loh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tim Dang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Toni Challenor (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Samuel Thompson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Winter Lachlan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brendon Allan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs William Bucknall (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Danial Affendy (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs danika hoskins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joel De Francesco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jaxon Every (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mat Collett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Bell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Toni Challenor (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Cavenett (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ross Jackson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Bingemann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Keegan Walls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
100%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zac Goode (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Coulson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Lim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Damien Hutchins (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Pinnuck (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.