Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Melbourne 2023

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Xavier Ryan

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.2

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs xuhong tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Loh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Dang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Toni Challenor (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Thompson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Winter Lachlan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brendon Allan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.05
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.99
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.36
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Ethan Rossborough

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Bucknall (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danial Affendy (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 15:85

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs danika hoskins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joel De Francesco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jaxon Every (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mat Collett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.21
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.30
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Andy Pham

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Bell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Toni Challenor (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Johnson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Cavenett (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.87
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Jaii Nestler

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ross Jackson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Bingemann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keegan Walls (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Jacob Kostoglou

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zac Goode (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Coulson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Lim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

David de Bruyne

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damien Hutchins (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Pinnuck (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.