Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuhung Kao

21st • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bernard Eng (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 世殷周 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chen Ze-Wei (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 82:18

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs SU WEI MING (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs YUHSIANG TSAI (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Pan Ying hsiu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.16
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.76
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.33
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

CHIU CHUNG-YI

28th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yu Zhang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs CHUANG CHIEN-CHENG (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs YUHSIANG TSAI (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adonis Liang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Stop-Ting Hsu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yu Hsuan Hong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs 陳子豫 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.57
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.95

陸宗彥

51st • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wen Yen Huang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs KAO FENG CHI (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CHENG WANG (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bernard Eng (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Albert Ho (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Yu Huan Lin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.96
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.36
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

HSU WEI-CHUNG

37th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andy Wang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs KENT Lin (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 昀劉 (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs MIN HSU (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs YUHSIANG TSAI (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.25
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Hung Cheng Ting

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yi-Min Tsai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ma Kang shuo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 陳子豫 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs MIN FENG CHIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Night S (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.03
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Manson Hsiau

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jens Jap (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.