Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2026

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

HanYang Chang

42nd • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 吳品賢 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs LIN TING-WEI (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yi-Min Tsai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 陳正宇 (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jens Jap (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs HAN LONG LIU (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Po-Chuan Lin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R8	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.59
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.75
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Night S

36th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ma Kang shuo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs ZongRu Wu (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hoklong wong (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs yenwei Wang (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hung Cheng Ting (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.57
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

健峰簡

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chan Cian (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs MIN FENG CHIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yu Hsuan Hong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ting-xun Yang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Forked Continuum	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.76
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.